Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 71,267
2 South Dakota 62,627
3 Iowa 49,312
4 Wisconsin 48,417
5 Nebraska 43,408
6 Mississippi 42,568
7 Alabama 41,541
8 Louisiana 41,512
9 Utah 41,367
10 Idaho 40,967
11 Tennessee 40,571
12 Arkansas 40,382
13 Florida 39,291
14 Illinois 38,587
15 Montana 37,125
16 Georgia 36,790
17 South Carolina 36,064
18 Nevada 35,812
19 Arizona 35,624
20 Missouri 35,285
21 Texas 35,036
22 Oklahoma 34,434
23 Rhode Island 34,341
24 Kansas 34,258
25 Minnesota 32,079
26 Indiana 31,623
27 Wyoming 29,908
28 New Jersey 28,866
29 North Carolina 27,977
30 Kentucky 27,574
31 New York 27,438
32 Delaware 27,319
33 Alaska 26,945
34 New Mexico 26,173
35 Maryland 25,547
36 District of Columbia 25,506
37 Massachusetts 24,867
38 California 24,773
39 Michigan 22,938
40 Colorado 22,899
41 Puerto Rico 22,596
42 Virginia 22,514
43 Connecticut 21,912
44 Ohio 21,410
45 Pennsylvania 18,369
46 Washington 16,061
47 West Virginia 15,849
48 Oregon 11,960
49 Hawaii 11,347
50 New Hampshire 9,184
51 Maine 5,723
52 Vermont 3,833

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,954
2 South Dakota 1,602
3 Iowa 1,351
4 Wyoming 1,094
5 Wisconsin 1,045
6 Nebraska 1,026
7 Minnesota 945
8 Illinois 879
9 Utah 858
10 Montana 828
11 Alaska 750
12 Indiana 703
13 Missouri 630
14 Kansas 615
15 New Mexico 599
16 Idaho 598
17 Colorado 561
18 Oklahoma 537
19 Nevada 498
20 Arkansas 497
21 Tennessee 464
22 Ohio 430
23 Kentucky 413
24 Michigan 365
25 West Virginia 345
26 Mississippi 313
27 Alabama 307
28 Massachusetts 301
29 Arizona 295
30 Delaware 290
31 Puerto Rico 287
32 New Jersey 276
33 South Carolina 262
34 Texas 262
35 Florida 256
36 Pennsylvania 246
37 North Carolina 229
38 Maryland 222
39 Oregon 206
40 Rhode Island 198
41 Virginia 194
42 Georgia 191
43 New York 175
44 Washington 168
45 New Hampshire 166
46 Louisiana 153
47 California 151
48 District of Columbia 150
49 Maine 107
50 Connecticut 99
51 Hawaii 90
52 Vermont 47

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,849
2 New York 1,712
3 Massachusetts 1,472
4 Connecticut 1,310
5 Louisiana 1,298
6 Mississippi 1,156
7 Rhode Island 1,155
8 District of Columbia 926
9 Arizona 846
10 North Dakota 845
11 Illinois 832
12 Florida 797
13 Michigan 795
14 Georgia 793
15 South Carolina 783
16 Delaware 737
17 Pennsylvania 710
18 Maryland 696
19 Arkansas 690
20 Indiana 687
21 Texas 664
22 Alabama 628
23 South Dakota 605
24 Nevada 601
25 Iowa 584
26 New Mexico 533
27 Missouri 527
28 Tennessee 521
29 Minnesota 480
30 Ohio 471
31 California 454
32 North Carolina 441
33 Virginia 434
34 Montana 426
35 Colorado 420
36 Wisconsin 411
37 Kansas 400
38 Idaho 386
39 Kentucky 367
40 Nebraska 367
41 Oklahoma 363
42 New Hampshire 359
43 Washington 335
44 West Virginia 280
45 Puerto Rico 273
46 Utah 205
47 Wyoming 196
48 Oregon 173
49 Hawaii 155
50 Maine 113
51 Alaska 107
52 Vermont 94

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 20
2 North Dakota 18
3 Montana 14
4 Kansas 9
5 Wisconsin 7
6 Arkansas 5
7 Illinois 5
8 Indiana 5
9 Minnesota 5
10 Nebraska 5
11 New Mexico 5
12 Wyoming 5
13 Mississippi 4
14 Tennessee 4
15 West Virginia 4
16 Alabama 3
17 Arizona 3
18 Idaho 3
19 Iowa 3
20 Massachusetts 3
21 Michigan 3
22 Colorado 2
23 Florida 2
24 Georgia 2
25 Kentucky 2
26 Louisiana 2
27 Missouri 2
28 Nevada 2
29 Oklahoma 2
30 Pennsylvania 2
31 South Carolina 2
32 Texas 2
33 Utah 2
34 Connecticut 1
35 District of Columbia 1
36 Maryland 1
37 New York 1
38 North Carolina 1
39 Ohio 1
40 Oregon 1
41 Puerto Rico 1
42 Alaska 0
43 California 0
44 Delaware 0
45 Hawaii 0
46 Maine 0
47 New Hampshire 0
48 New Jersey 0
49 Rhode Island 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 180,820 1 99
Norton Kansas 174,221 2 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 170,991 3 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 167,367 4 99
Trousdale Tennessee 162,354 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 53,352 360 88
Richland South Carolina 43,807 664 78
York South Carolina 26,646 1734 44
Orange California 20,251 2193 30
Pierce Washington 14,333 2587 17

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,208 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 4 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 5 99
Richland South Carolina 671 979 68
Davidson Tennessee 526 1289 58
Orange California 475 1431 54
York South Carolina 399 1637 47
Pierce Washington 296 1941 38

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons